Hope that next season we can win again!
Cya!
Cheers!
In 09/10 Season i will offer a paid service, so i will not send all my picks to this blog. If you are interested in my service, i have 3 available packages. Contact me: nonamebets@gmail.com ;)
Pick: Fiorentina Result: 1-1 Stake: 7/10 Odds: 1.80 Bookmaker: William HillvCash: Yes
Posted: Aug 25, 2009, 12:38
In 1st leg, Sporting draw at home against Fiorentina, 2-2. Was the best game of Sporting in this season, and I’m pretty sure that the referee influenced the game result. Sporting deserved to won that game. In 1st half, on central defender from Fiorentina should see the red card, and in 2nd half, other central defender make the same situation. A couple of bad decision in faults… a poor referee.
But for this game, things will be different…
Sporting is playing bad football, and for Wednesday game, forwards Felipe Caicedo (ex-Manchester City) and Hélder Postiga are injured, and midfielders Simon Vukcevic (suspended) and Marat Izmailov are injured too.
Sporting has big problems in right defender position, Pedro Silva are playing really bad, and Pereirinha isn’t a real right defender, maybe can play Abel, but he isn’t in good shape actually. In left defender position… André Marques, a very young and inexperienced player.
In midfield Sporting has Rochemback, Miguel Veloso, João Moutinho and Matias Fernandez. This players are good but they are too similar and they play all from the center. For Wednesday game, Sporting hasn’t wingers… Vukcevic and Izmailov are the best wingers of this team, and for me, the most important players (plus Joao Moutinho) when Sporting is attacking.
In forward, Liedson can’t score this year… maybe some confidence problems, and Yannick Djalo and Carlos Saleiro aren’t so good to play at this level…
In the other side Fiorentina have a experienced team, with Zanneti, Mutu, Gilardino and others.
Sporting have to win this game, or draw with 2 or more goals (I really don’t believe), and for this reason they have to attack, to look for the goal. With Fiorentina experience, I can’t see how Sporting will win or draw this game. Fiorentina can score some goals, and defend very well.
Fiorentina odds at 1,82 are very good in my opinion. Sporting is playing really bad, and without Postiga, Caicedo, Vukcevic and Izmailov it will be more difficult to score. If the result on 1sr leg was other (0-0 for example) i will use my first double dime, but with a 2-2 draw I prefer to use just single dime.
Well... i can’t understand this odds, and i think bookies are doing a mistake here.
Two teams from north of Portugal, but with very different ambitions.
In home side, Feirense have a very nice team for this division. Like manager said, they have team to fight the promotion to Liga Sagres. They bought some experienced 1st division players, like, Paulo Lopes and Pinheiro (both ex-Trofense), Brazilians Élvis and Roberto (ex-Leixões), and others like Renato Queirós, Wagnão and Igor Souza. Players that show a decent team, the best of last years.
Playing in Feirense stadium is always difficult, with some nice support. This will be the 1st league game in home. In 1st week, Feirense won 1-0 against Chaves.
In the away side we have a very young team, with one clear objective, avoid relegation. Even the coach is the most youngest coach in Portugal actually, and he have a nice risk, taking this team and fighting for avoid relegation. All last season better players were out from club, so this team is completely new.
Maybe Varzim can win some points in home games, but in away games I can’t see nice results to them.
Against the strong Feirense, I just can see a home victory. For me, the fair odds for home win, will be around 1,70… 1,75… no more than that. So, I repeat that I think bookies don’t know much about this league, and all the value is in home win.
Sporting goes for this game as the main favorite. More history, more supporters, better team, but this is enough to win this game? Let’s see…
Sporting have this season, the same team from previous season, more Matías Fernandez (ex-Villareall) and youngsters André Marques (1st team choice) and Carlos Saleiro.
Here in Portugal, everybody expect a better Sporting in this days, because they have the same team, the same organization. But the truth is that Sporting started this season very bad, with just one winning game.
But I think season changed a few weeks ago… Sporting draw 0-0 at home against Twente for Champions League Qualification, and in 2nd leg after 90 min losing 1-0… Sporting scored in a corner a keep the qualification ahead!
In Tuesday against Fiorentina (2-2 draw) Sporting played their best football of this season, and I don’t have any difficulties saying that Sporting didn’t won this game because a couple of unfair decisions by the referee. He didn’t show 2 red cards to both Italian central defenders (one of them in 1st half…). Bad decisions in all game.
Forward Liedson didn’t score yet, and Sporting feel that, but he’s very good player and the goals will appear.
Braga is a nice team, despite they were better in last season. In first season game, Braga won against Academica with a goal at 86th min. And was the only team that win in first week of championship. But they didn’t play so good… just after Hugo Viana (ex-Valencia) come to game, in 2nd half. In the midfield, Braga have some experienced players like Vandinho or Frechaut, but I think they are too old, and not so good like other years. Braga is strong in the wings, with Alan and Diogo Valente (ex-Leixoes), but team isn’t playing a nice football, and Sporting is much better than Academica.
Sporting will play home again, and they have to win this game at home… if we think that this would be the 1st victory at home, I think it’s dangerous to Sporting don’t win this game. Supporters enjoyed last game against Fiorentina, and I think that midfield with Miguel Veloso, Joao Moutinho and Matias Fernandez can make a lot of troubles to Braga.
I only see a home victory here, and if an AH-1 hadn’t no value at all, Sporting to win this game with 1,85 odds, have a nice value for me, so here is the pick.
Today Benfica will play (home) against Maritimo, in 1st week of Liga Sagres (1st Division). This year Benfica bought some great players, like Javier Saviola (ex-Real Madrid), Javi Garcia (ex-Real Madrid) , Keirrison (ex-Palmeiras) , Ramires (-ex-Cruzeiro), and other important players to this team. But the big notice for this season, is the coach… Jorge Jesus. Maybe nobody know him outside Portugal, but he is a great great coach, who live football about 24h/day. He know all about Portuguese soccer, and in my opinion, he is the most important guy in Benfica. It’s true that Benfica bought some new players, but players like Pablo Aimar, Oscar Cardozo, Luisão, Di Maria, stayed at the club, so Benfica have a big team. In this pre-season, Benfica won 4 Cups… yes, it’s only pre-season, but Benfica is playing really great. Victory agains Shakthar Donetsk, Atlhetic Bilbao, Milan, Ajax… only one lost, against Atletico Madrid. Benfica supporters really believe in championship winning this year, and the stadium was full in all previous games, tomorrow will be the same, with around 60 000 supporters. But I don’t make this pick just for Benfica good football… Maritimo is a very nice team, also with a nice coach, and also with nice results in pre-season, but the main fact is… For this game, Maritimo can’t play with midfielders Roberto Sousa (ex-Leixoes), Bruno (the big captain) and Marcinho (a great nº10). Maritimo coach only have one midfielder that usually is part of eleven start, Olberdam. Without this players, Maritimo will have to play with some other players, like left defender in the attacking wings, and all of that. I think they aren’t ready to face a team like Benfica in this conditions. Even in defense they have one problem… Robson (ex-Vitoria Setubal), played almost every pre-season games, and now Portuguese Justice says that Robson can’t play for Maritimo, because he had contract problems with his ex-team. So, Benfica will play this first game, with 60 000 crazy supporters, against a team with some difficulties for this game. Benfica player’s are better, much better, and we can expect very good football from them. You know I always protect my bets, so I was seeing and waiting for odds variation. I really believe in a Benfica victory for 2 or more goals, but asian bookies offer to us, a nice AH(-1) with odds like 1,78. We have the AH(-1,25) with 2,09 odds. For me, both are good, but I’m here to win some money in all season, so I don’t have to risk my bank. AH(-1) sounds very good to me. Pick: Benfica AH (-1) 1,78 @ sbobet
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